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时尚行业发展趋势

第一部分:发展趋势

2024

Segment 1: Global Economy 全球经济

1. Fragmented Future 分块的未来
  • 英:In 2024, the global economic outlook will likely continue to be unsettled. As new and ongoing financial, geopolitical and other challenges weigh heavily on consumer confidence, fashion markets in the US, Europe and China are facing differing headwinds, requiring suppliers, brands and retailers to bolster contingency planning, among other measures.
  • 中:2024年,全球经济前景可能会继续不稳定。随着新的和持续存在的金融、地缘政治以及其他挑战对消费者信心产生重大影响,美国、欧洲和中国的时尚市场面临着不同的逆风,需要供应商、品牌和零售商加强应急计划等一系列措施。
  • 英:Data Support: Consumers’ net intent to spend on apparel is −16% across the US, Europe and China in Q4 2023.
  • 中:数据支撑:2023年第四季度,美国、欧洲和中国的消费者对服装支出的净意愿为-16%。
2. Climate Urgency 气候变迁
  • 英:The frequency and intensity of extreme weather-related events in 2023 mean the climate crisis has become even more visible, leaving the fashion value chain especially vulnerable. With climate risks worsening across continents, the fashion industry can’t hold off any longer on building resilience into its supply chains and helping to abate emissions.
  • 中:2023年极端天气事件的频率和强度增加意味着气候危机变得更加显而易见,使时尚价值链特别脆弱。随着气候风险在各大洲加剧,时尚行业不能再推迟在其供应链中建立韧性和减少排放的工作。
  • 英:Data Support: More than $65 billion of apparel exports are at risk of being wiped out by climate events such as flooding and extreme heat.
  • 中:数据支撑:超过650亿美元的服装出口面临被洪涝和极端高温等气候事件摧毁的风险。

Segment 2: Consumer Shifts 消费者习惯改变

1. Vacation Mode 假日模式
  • 英:Consumers are gearing up for the biggest year of travel since before the pandemic. But a shift in values means travellers have a different set of expectations, even as shopping remains high on the agenda. Brands and retailers should consider refreshing distribution and category strategies to meet travellers wherever they are.
  • 中:消费者正在为自疫情前最大规模的旅行年做准备。但价值观的转变意味着旅行者有着不同的期望,尽管购物仍然是重要议程中的重点。品牌和零售商应考虑更新分销和类别战略,以满足旅行者的需求。
  • 英:Data Support: In 2024, global travel volumes are projected to reach 110% of 2019 levels, the first year to exceed pre-pandemic levels.
  • 中:数据支撑:预计2024年全球旅行量将达到2019年水平的110%,这是首次超过疫情前水平的年份。
2. The New Face of Influence 社交新势力
  • 英:It’s time for brand marketers to update their influencer playbooks. A new guard of creative personalities is gaining brands’ attention, winning trust and fandom among key audiences. Working with these personalities in 2024 will require a different type of partnership, an emphasis on video and a willingness to relinquish a degree of creative control.
  • 中:品牌营销人员需要更新他们的影响力者操作手册了。一批新型的创意人物正吸引品牌的注意力,在关键受众中赢得信任和粉丝。在2024年与这些人物合作将需要一种不同类型的伙伴关系,重点是视频,并且愿意放弃一定程度的创意控制。
  • 英:Data Support: More than 40% of consumers prefer fashion influencers who are relatable and authentic.
  • 中:数据支撑:超过40%的消费者更喜欢与平易近人和真实的时尚影响者合作。
3. Outdoor Reinvented 户外系列重生
  • 英:Technical outdoor wear has been propelled by consumers’ postpandemic embrace of healthier lifestyles as well as “gorpcore,” and is likely to accelerate even further in 2024. More outdoor brands will likely launch lifestyle collections while lifestyle brands embed technical elements into collections, further blurring the lines between functionality and style.
  • 中:消费者在疫情后对更健康生活方式的拥抱以及对“gorpcore”的认可推动了技术户外服装的发展,并且在2024年可能会进一步加速。更多户外品牌可能会推出生活方式系列,同时生活方式品牌也会将技术元素融入到系列中,进一步模糊功能和风格之间的界限。
  • 英:Data Support: Trade activity on resale platform StockX for Salomon, Arc’teryx and The North Face grew on average 800% in 2023 vs 2022.
  • 中:数据支撑:2023年与2022年相比,转售平台StockX上Salomon、Arc’teryx和The North Face的交易活动平均增长了800%。

Segment 3: Fashion System 时尚系统

1. Gen AI's Creative Crossroad 生成式AI的十字路口
  • 英:After generative AI’s breakout year in 2023, use cases are emerging across creative industries, including fashion. Capturing the value of this transformative technology in 2024 will require fashion players to look beyond automation and explore its potential to augment the work of human creatives.
  • 中:在2023年生成式人工智能迎来突破性的一年之后,各个创意产业,包括时尚行业,都出现了使用案例。要在2024年把握这项变革性技术的价值,时尚行业的参与者需要超越自动化,探索其增强人类创意工作的潜力。
  • 英:Data Support: 73% of fashion executives think gen AI is a 2024 priority for their companies, but only 5% believe they have the capabilities to fully leverage it.
  • 中:数据支撑:73%的时尚行业高管认为生成式人工智能是他们公司在2024年的优先事项,但只有5%的人认为他们具备充分利用它的能力。
2. Fast Fashion's Power Plays 快时尚玩家崛起
  • 英:Fast-fashion competition will likely become even fiercer in the year ahead. Challengers, led by Shein and Temu, are changing tactics around price, customer experience and speed. Success for disruptors and incumbents will likely hinge on their ability to adapt to evolving consumer preferences, while navigating regulations that may impact the industry.
  • 中:未来一年,快时尚竞争可能会变得更加激烈。由Shein和Temu等领导的挑战者正在围绕价格、客户体验和速度等方面改变策略。颠覆者和传统企业的成功可能取决于他们适应不断变化的消费者偏好,并在可能影响该行业的法规中导航的能力。
  • 英:Data Support: 40% of US consumers have shopped at Shein or Temu in the last 12 months.
  • 中:数据支撑:在过去12个月中,有40%的美国消费者在Shein或Temu购物过。
3. All Eyes on Brand 品牌为先
  • 英:Brand marketing will likely be back in the limelight in the year ahead as the fashion industry confronts a shifting landscape in which performance marketing no longer reigns. Consumers’ emotional connections to brands will likely be critical as fashion marketers reorientate their playbooks to emphasise long-term brandbuilding strategies.
  • 中:在未来一年中,品牌营销可能会再次成为聚光灯下的焦点,因为时尚行业面临着一个不再由绩效营销主导的不断变化的格局。消费者对品牌的情感联系可能至关重要,因此时尚营销人员重新调整其操作手册以强调长期品牌建设策略。
  • 英:Data Support: 71% of fashion executives plan to increase brand marketing spend in 2024
  • 中:数据支撑:71%的时尚行业高管计划在2024年增加品牌营销支出。
4. Sustainability Rules 可持续发展为纲
  • 英:The era of the fashion industry self-regulating sustainability is drawing to a close around the world. Across jurisdictions, new rules could have a widespread impact on both consumers and fashion players. Brands and manufacturers need to revamp business models to align with the changes ahead.
  • 中:时尚行业自我监管可持续发展的时代正在全球范围内接近尾声。在各个司法管辖区,新规定可能会对消费者和时尚从业者产生广泛影响。品牌和制造商需要改革业务模式,以配合即将发生的变化。
  • 英:Data Support: 87% of fashion executives think sustainability regulations will impact their businesses in 2024.
  • 中:数据支撑:87%的时尚行业高管认为可持续发展法规将在2024年影响到他们的业务。
5. Bullwhip Snaps Back 牛鞭效应
  • 英:Changes in consumer demand have resulted in the “bullwhip effect,” where cuts to orders increase in magnitude at different parts of a supply chain, putting pressure on fashion’s suppliers. Now, if supply is to keep pace with anticipated renewed demand, brands and retailers should consider focusing on transparency and bolstering strategic partnerships.
  • 中:消费者需求的变化导致了“牛鞭效应”,即在供应链的不同部分,对订单的削减程度增加,给时尚供应商带来了压力。现在,如果供应要跟上预期的复苏需求,品牌和零售商应考虑专注于透明度,并加强战略合作伙伴关系。
  • 英:Data Support: 73% of chief procurement officers cited demand volatility as a dynamic that may impact supplier relationships in the next five years.
  • 中:数据支撑:73%的首席采购官提到需求的不稳定性可能会在未来五年影响供应商关系。

2023

Segment 1: Global Economy

  1. Global Fragility
  2. Regional Realities

Segment 2: Consumer Shifts

  1. Two-Track Spending
  2. Fluid Fashion
  3. Formalwear Reinvented

Segment 3: Fashion System

  1. DTC Reckoning
  2. Tackling Greenwashing
  3. Future-Proofing Manufacturing
  4. Digital Marketing Reloaded
  5. Organisation Overhaul

2022

Segment 1: Global Economy

  1. Uneven Recovery
  2. Logistics Gridlock

Segment 2: Consumer Shifts

  1. Domestic Luxuries
  2. Wardrobe Reboot
  3. Metaverse Mindset

Segment 3: Fashion System

  1. Social Shopping
  2. Circular Textiles
  3. Product Passports
  4. Cyber Resilience
  5. Talent Crunch

2021

Segment 1: Global Economy

  1. Living with the Virus
  2. Diminished Demand

Segment 2: Consumer Shifts

  1. Digital Sprint
  2. Seeking Justice
  3. Travel Interrupted

Segment 3: Fashion System

  1. Less is More
  2. Opportunistic Investment
  3. Deeper Partnerships
  4. Retail ROI
  5. Work Revolution

2020

Segment 1: Global Economy

  1. On High Alert
  2. Beyond China

Segment 2: Consumer Shifts

  1. Next Gen Social
  2. In the Neighbourhood
  3. Sustainability First

Segment 3: Fashion System

  1. Materials Revolution
  2. Inclusive Culture
  3. Cross-Border Challengers
  4. Unconventional Conventions
  5. Digital Recalibration

2019

Segment 1: Global Economy

  1. Caution Ahead
  2. Indian Ascent
  3. Trade 2.0

Segment 2: Consumer Shifts

  1. End of Ownership
  2. Getting Woke

Segment 3: Fashion System

  1. Now or Never
  2. Radical Transparency
  3. Self-Disrupt
  4. Digital Landgrab
  5. On Demand

2018

Segment 1: Global Economy

  1. Predictably Unpredictable
  2. Globalisation Reboot
  3. Asian Trailblazers

Segment 2: Consumer Shifts

  1. Getting Personal
  2. Platforms first
  3. Mobile Obsessed

Segment 3: Fashion System

  1. AI gets real
  2. Sustainability Credibility
  3. Off-price deception
  4. Startup thinking

2017

Segment 1: Global Economy

  1. Age of Uncertainty
  2. China Interrupted

Segment 2: Consumer Shifts

  1. Discount Culture
  2. Consumer Kinship
  3. Digital Upgrade

Segment 3: Fashion System

  1. System Breakdown
  2. Cost Cutting
  3. Instant Gratification
  4. A Creativity Crisis
  5. Responsible Innovation